This article was also published in the Financial Times.
Nick reports on what leading restaurateurs in Singapore, Hong Kong, San Francisco, New York, London and Paris are experiencing and predicting.
Recent restaurateurs' revelations have centred on the fact that while customer numbers are still good, particularly between Thursday and Sunday, the average spend is down since we all seem to be drinking less or skipping either a first course, dessert or coffee. The only consolation, they concur, is that at last it is easier to hire good staff, especially cooks.
To discover more, and to see whether leading restaurateurs are beginning to spot any green shoots of recovery after what has been the most tumultuous nine months in the industry for the past 20 years, I asked six restaurateurs for their observations and thoughts on what the immediate future may hold.
Randy See, the enthusiastic MD of Les Amis in Singapore and the recently opened Cépage in Hong Kong, was quick to respond with two radically different reports.
'In Singapore business has been affected at all ends: the number of customers and what they have been spending on food and wine. The period after the SARS outbreak in 2003 was similar but this is lengthier and more challenging. We have been coming up with promotions featuring less expensive ingredients such as wild mushrooms and asparagus that, fortunately, have been well received.
'Hong Kong has not suffered similar setbacks although many are cutting back on their wines, switching from classed growths to the lesser Rhône regions and Spain. But the last two months have definitely been better with wine sales up 20% – we even sold our first bottle of Château Pétrus in Hong Kong recently!'
See also drew an interesting parallel. Being a restaurateur, he now knows, is like running a marathon, and that if he and his staff do not look after his clients' interests in times such as these, they will never return and he will not survive.
But even long-established restaurateurs such as Judy Rodgers at Zuni Café in San Francisco, still thriving after 30 years, have had to face new challenges. In her case, the stronger dollar has kept away a considerable number of overseas visitors while the state ban on same-sex marriages has deprived her business, only a few blocks from City Hall, of a lot of celebratory wedding parties.
But, in her words, Rodgers 'gambled big time' and it seems to have paid off. 'We closed for a week in May to rebuild the brick oven in which we cook our pizzas and chickens, and really is the focal point of my menu, and to refurbish the upstairs dining room', she said. 'It was a terrifying experience because not only does the restaurant depend on this one oven but so do 100 employees' livelihoods.' Happily, the gamble paid off and business was back to normal within three days of re-opening.
Rodgers has, however, learnt two important business lessons as a result. The first is that now that she has created a classier dining room upstairs, for the first time in 30 years customers are requesting to be seated there, a significant improvement that makes the whole restaurant a happier and more efficient place. And she has cut her operating costs by closing at 11pm rather than midnight on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in response to another worldwide phenomenon, that customers everywhere want to eat earlier rather than later.
In his book Setting the Table, Danny Meyer, whose New York restaurants range in style from Shake Shack for burgers to the distinguished Modern in MOMA, goes to the heart of what makes for a successful relationship between the restaurateur and the customer. Not surprisingly, therefore, his analysis of what the restaurateur has to deliver today and in the future was to the point.
'People today will buy only those things that are essential and also offer good value, so the primary challenge for restaurateurs is how to remain or become an experience that people truly need: something that they cannot live without.
'In our restaurants we're working hard to achieve this by blurring the lines between going out and coming home – two things people must have from time to time. In addition to giving people the break from cooking and washing up we now have to provide the embracing welcome and social setting that reminds our customers why life is worth living. Do all that generously and we become an essential and highly valued product.' Meyer's next opening, a trattoria in the Gramercy Park Hotel due to open in the autumn, will be designed to generate this sense of a 'trip home'.
My final two responses, from Fernando Peire, the General Manager of The Ivy in London (whose distinctive doorman is shown here), and Alain Ducasse, the chef engaged with numerous restaurants around the world, provided comments that equally went to the heart of my question, the former operationally, the latter more philosophically.
'Demand for tables at The Ivy from Thursday to Sunday is as high, if not higher, than ever. But for us to be as profitable as we need to be and to ensure that the dining room appears to be as bustling as everyone wants it to be until as close to closing time as possible you have to rely more than ever on your maitre d's skills in incorporating late demand on the telephone during the earlier part of the week.
'And in one way the shift away from customers dining out on expense accounts makes this somewhat easier. Customers who pay their own way may indeed occasionally choose to order less but my experience is that they consequently spend less time at the table. This allows the restaurant to serve more customers and, most importantly, when you have the regular clientele that we do, to be able to accommodate last-minute demand.'
Ducasse seemed initially unhappy with my questions. 'Too much talk of an economic downturn is counter-productive', he opined, 'and everyone's response has to be to work harder. Chefs face two more long-term challenges.
The first is to redefine our working relationship with Nature, so we have stopped serving fish species considered to be in danger and now work more closely with local suppliers. And, secondly, to write fresher, healthier menus where vegetables and cereals are the key components. Not vegetarian menus per se but menus that are genuinely modern and do not compromise pleasure.'
Ducasse ended by adding that in discovering the right answers to these long-term challenges, they do so from a position he never envisaged chefs or restaurateurs would ever occupy. 'I'm confident because the interest in cooking has never been so high. It's now the world's most popular hobby.'
Les Amis, Singapore and Cépage, Hong Kong, www.lesamis.com.sg
Zuni Café, San Francisco, www.zunicafe.com
The Modern, New York, www.ushgnyc.com
The Ivy, London, www.the-ivy.co.uk
Alain Ducasse, www.alain-ducasse.com