18 April 2018 In conjunction with today's article about Wine Owners, we are publishing this fascinating summary of what Wine Owners founder Nick Martin (his hands and iPad pictured right, busy in Bordeaux last week) and his team have dubbed proto-prices, which they define as 'The price at which Wine Owners believes the châteaux need to release their wines in order to make en primeur (EP) worthwhile and attractive for the consumer'. The 70 or so wines in the table below are those that are mostly commonly bought en primeur, according to their data.
The proto-prices take into account the prices at which consumers can currently buy back-vintages that Wine Owners consider to be of equivalent quality to that of 2017. Thus in the fourth column of the table below, V-AVG refers to the average current market value of vintages 2004, 2006, 2008, 2012 and 2014 (and ib in the column headings is short for in bond).
Jonathan Reeve, who has done the number crunching, explains how these proto-prices have been calculated:
- For each wine, we averaged current market value for its 2004, 2006, 2008, 2012 and 2014 vintages. Why? Because 2017 is more like those vintages (qualitatively, and in its heterogeneity) than it is to 2009, 2010, 2015 or 2016.
- We also took each wine's 2016 en primeur price (ib, retail, GBP, per bottle).
- We then made some manual Fingerspitzengefühl adjustments [loosely translated as they used their instinct and experience to fiddle around a little] to account for the new levels at which various châteaux (eg Canon, Figeac, Calon Ségur) have placed themselves in terms of quality and price, and made adjustments to the first growths to reflect their popularity on the secondary market.
He adds, 'Note that for whites, we used 2016 as a comparable vintage, which in fact shows that they can sustain prices as per 2016, despite the less impressive quality of reds in 2017. (Nick and I both think that 2017 is an excellent vintage for Bordeaux whites.)'
Based on their calculations, the average reduction in price compared with 2016 is 23% and the range of change vs 2016 is 0% to -41%.
Reeve concludes: 'We will be fascinated to watch the 2017 prices as they are released!' We will be adding the actual prices to the table as they trickle out.
| WINE NAME | 2017 EP PROTO-PRICE (ib per bottle) | 2016 EP (ib per bottle) | % CHANGE 2017 proto- price v 2016 | V-AVG | EP 2017 release price (ib per bottle) |
| L'Aile d'Argent Blanc | £54.17 | £54.17 | 0% | £53.00 | £56 |
| Alter Ego de Palmer | £46.60 | £46.60 | 0% | £53.00 | £48.75 |
| Angélus | £232.05 | £298.00 | -22% | £238.00 | £280 |
| Ausone | £423.50 | £590.83 | -28% | £385.00 | £470 |
| Beau-Séjour Bécot | £39.10 | £52.00 | -25% | £34.00 | £42 |
| Beauséjour [Duffau-Lagarrosse] | £55.58 | £85.50 | -35% | £57.00 | £77 |
| Belair-Monange | £71.40 | £115.83 | -38% | £51.00 | £93 |
| Beychevelle | £56.30 | £56.30 | 0% | £68.00 | £52 |
| Calon Ségur | £64 | £64 | 0% | £65.00 | £61.50 |
| Canon | £74 | £74 | 0% | £50.00 | £67.50 |
| Canon La Gaffelière | £44.85 | £64.17 | -30% | £46.00 | £54 |
| Les Carruades de Lafite | £125.00 | £125.00 | 0% | £215.00 | £135 |
| La Chapelle de La Mission Haut-Brion | £48.50 | £63.33 | -24% | £44.00 | £58 |
| Cheval Blanc | £344.30 | £533.30 | -35% | £313.00 | £442 |
| Dom de Chevalier | £36.08 | £53.50 | -33% | £37.00 | £43 |
| Clerc Milon | £49.16 | £49.16 | 0% | £52.00 | £52 |
| Clinet (Pomerol) | £49.73 | £72.00 | -31% | £51.00 | £57.50 |
| Clos Fourtet | £60.50 | £92 | -34% | £55 | £73 |
| La Conseillante | £96 | £115 | -38% | £80 | £123 |
| Cos d'Estournel | £79 | £110 | -28% | £79 | £109 |
| Ducru-Beaucaillou | £92.00 | £140.00 | -34% | £92.00 | £124 |
| Duhart-Milon | £47.78 | £53.30 | -10% | £49.00 | £47 |
| Durfort Vivens | £34.65 | £40.33 | -14% | £33.00 | £38 |
| L'Église-Clinet | £115.50 | £216.67 | -47% | £105.00 | £172 |
| L'Évangile | £82.88 | £175 | -37% | £85.00 | £180 |
| Figeac (St-Émilion) | £113.40 | £155.00 | -27% | £81.00 | £123 |
| La Fleur Pétrus | £129.68 | £165.83 | -22% | £133.00 | £149 |
| Gazin | £44.85 | £60.50 | -26% | £46.00 | £58.75 |
| Grand-Puy-Lacoste | £40.00 | £60.83 | -34% | £40.00 | £54 |
| Gruaud Larose | £40.95 | £51.67 | -21% | £42.00 | £52 |
| Haut-Bailly | £52.00 | £87.50 | -41% | £52.00 | £74 |
| Haut-Brion | £310.20 | £400.00 | -22% | £282.00 | £355 |
| Haut-Brion Blanc | £583.33 | £583.33 | 0% | £557.00 | £615 |
| L'If | £147.23 | £175.00 | -16% | £151.00 | |
| Lafite Rothschild | £398.72 | £491.66 | -19% | £498.40 | £415 |
| Lafleur | £348.08 | £430.00 | -19% | £357.00 | £445 |
| Lagrange | £29.25 | £35.00 | -16% | £30.00 | £31 |
| Lascombes | £47.78 | £56.67 | -16% | £49.00 | £52 |
| Léoville Barton | £48.75 | £62.50 | -22% | £50.00 | £54 |
| Leoville Las Cases | £113.30 | £175.00 | -35% | £103.00 | £148 |
| Léoville Poyferré | £49.73 | £67.00 | -26% | £51.00 | £55 |
| Lynch Bages | £74.10 | £95.80 | -23% | £76.00 | £74 |
| Malartic-Lagravière | £33.60 | £40.00 | -16% | £28.00 | £33.30 |
| Malartic-Lagraviere Blanc | £41.00 | £41.00 | 0% | £32.00 | £42.00 |
| Margaux | £351.90 | £428.60 | -18% | £306.00 | £360 |
| La Mission Haut-Brion | £184.60 | £324.16 | -43% | £142.00 | £245 |
| La Mission Haut-Brion Blanc | £451.43 | £466.67 | -3% | £463.00 | £490 |
| Monbousquet | £33.15 | £36.67 | -10% | £34.00 | £38 |
| La Mondotte | £126.75 | £199.00 | -36% | £130.00 | £119 |
| Montrose | £72.60 | £95.00 | -24% | £66.00 | £98 |
| Mouton Rothschild | £334.43 | £411.60 | -19% | £343.00 | £360 |
| Palmer (Margaux) | £171.60 | £236.60 | -27% | £156.00 | £195.75 |
| Pape Clément | £88.73 | £98.33 | -9% | £91.00 | £63.30 |
| Pape Clément Blanc | £98.33 | £129.16 | -23% | £68.00 | £100.45 |
| Pavie Macquin | £39.98 | £58.33 | -31% | £41.00 | £52 |
| Pavie (St-Émilion) | £194.03 | £298.00 | -35% | £199.00 | £280 |
| Pavillon Blanc de Ch Margaux | £145.83 | £145.83 | 0% | £150.00 | £147 |
| Pavillon Rouge de Ch Margaux | £133.58 | £115.00 | 16% | £137.00 | £135 |
| Le Petit Mouton Rothschild | £133.30 | £133.30 | 0% | £171.00 | £149 |
| Petrus | £1,642.88 | £2,666.00 | -38% | £1,685.00 | |
| Pichon Baron | £79.20 | £115.60 | -31% | £72.00 | £98 |
| Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande | £84.70 | £122.50 | -31% | £77.00 | £93 |
| Le Pin | £1,574.63 | £2,083.00 | -24% | £1,615.00 | £1,750 |
| Pontet-Canet | £68.40 | £111.67 | -39% | £57.00 | £82 |
| Quintus | £58.50 | £95.80 | -39% | £60.00 | £93 |
| Rauzan-Ségla | £46.80 | £61.30 | -24% | £48.00 | £54 |
| Smith Haut Lafitte | £50.00 | £78.00 | -36% | £50.00 | £69 |
| Smith Haut Lafitte Blanc | £73.00 | £73.00 | 0% | £57.00 | £83 |
| Troplong Mondot | £66.00 | £100.00 | -34% | £55.00 | £72 |
| Trotanoy | £119.93 | £193.33 | -38% | £123.00 | £212 |
| Valandraud | £87.75 | £129.15 | -32% | £90 | £100 |
| Vieux Château Certan | £128.75 | £196.67 | -35% | £103.00 | £172 |
| AVERAGE REDUCTION FOR A SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN | -23% | |
